Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
