Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
