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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still